In the world of poker, reverse pot odds are a critical concept that players need to grasp to make informed decisions at the table. These odds are the exact opposite of potential pot odds, and they play a significant role in shaping your strategy. Let’s dive deeper into what reverse pot odds are and why they are essential in poker.
Defining Reverse Pot Odds
Reverse pot odds are the exact opposite of potential pot odds. While potential pot odds relate to the amount of money you could win on future streets after making a call, reverse pot odds pertain to the money you might lose on those future streets after making a call.
To illustrate these concepts, let’s consider a couple of examples.
Potential Pot Odds in Action
Imagine you’re playing in a $1/$2 game with an effective stack of $500. You hold 7♣ 6♣ on a board of A♠ 8♣ 5♦ K♥. Your opponent bets $50 into a $100 pot, and for your call to be profitable, you need 25% equity.
Regrettably, your open-ended straight draw (OESD) currently gives you only 17% equity. So, your immediate call may not be profitable. However, your potential to earn more money in the effective stack size is still substantial. If you complete your straight on the river, there’s a good chance you’ll earn more. You might even win your opponent’s entire stack if they have a strong hand like a set or two pairs. This potential profit and the expected value (EV) it adds to your hand is what potential pot odds are all about.
Understanding Reverse Pot Odds
Now, let’s explore reverse pot odds with an example. You’re still playing in the $1/$2 game with a $500 effective stack. You hold 6♥ 4♥ on a board of A♠ J♦ 7♥ 2♥. Four players are in the hand, and one of them bets $75 into a $100 pot. The other two players have called, and it’s your turn to act.
To make a profitable call, you need 18.75% equity, as you need to pay $75 to win $325. Your chances of completing a flush on the river are 19.5%, which seems like a profitable call, right? Not necessarily. With three other players in the hand, there’s a chance that one of them has a stronger flush draw. If the river brings a heart, you’re almost certain to lose at least one more bet. Reverse pot odds refer to these potential losses.
The key takeaway from these examples is that potential pot odds can turn a losing call into a winning one, while reverse pot odds can turn a winning call into an obvious fold.
The Significance of Reverse Pot Odds
Understanding reverse pot odds can help you build your ranges in more profitable ways. Let’s move from theory to practical examples to illustrate this.
Suppose you have J♦ 5♦, and you defended your big blind against a button raise. The flop comes T♥ 9♣ 5♥. Your opponent bets 66% of the pot, and you need to assess your next move.
Now, think about what happens if the turn brings a Jack, giving you two pairs:
- Any Jack on the turn will complete the straight for KQ and 87.
- If the turn is J♥, it eliminates all flush draws in your opponent’s range.
Due to these potentially unfavorable scenarios, you would be right to say that J♦ 5♦ has significant reverse pot odds. In this case, it’s interesting to note that you might be better off calling with weaker hands that lack these reverse pot odds. For instance, 5♦ 3♦ is a much better hand to call with in this scenario than J♦ 5♦, despite being the same pair with a lower kicker. If you hit two pairs when a Three comes on the river, the potential straight draws won’t be completed. You still face a problem if a 3♥ lands on the river, but you also have some potential outs when you genuinely hit your clean outs.
Getting Blown Out of the Pot Increases Reverse Pot Odds
Let’s explore another example to emphasize why thinking ahead is crucial. Once again, you’re defending your big blind, but this time with 6♥ 6♣.
After the flop of K♥ 9♠ 3♦, you check and call a small bet. The pot is now at $100, and the turn brings a 2♦. You check, and your opponent makes a second barrel, this time for 75% of the pot.
Let’s assume you used an equity calculator and determined that your hand has 39% equity against your opponent’s range. You need 30% equity to make a profitable call based on your pot odds. Should you call?
No!
While you might have sufficient raw equity to make the call, you must consider how often you’ll face a third barrel on the river and how often you’ll improve your hand. If you don’t plan on calling with pocket sixes on the river (which would be ambitious at best), you’ll be losing the pot every time your opponent fires a third barrel. Moreover, you have only two outs, so the river card is unlikely to save you.
These factors turn what initially looks like a profitable call on the turn into a straightforward fold.
Conclusion
In poker, it’s always a delicate balance between potential pot odds and reverse pot odds, among countless other factors, when deciding what to do against a bet or raise. However, these two concepts can help make your overall strategy more profitable. Understanding how they impact your decisions can give you a significant edge at the poker table.